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February 06, 2008
The Poop On Super Tuesday
The Super Tuesday primary palooza is finally in the books, and what was long predicted came to pass. One major party contest has effectively been decided, while the other remains very much up for grabs. That's right folks, the conventional wisdom held -- as long as you don't mind flip-flopping the parties in the results, that is.
John McCain more or less sealed the Republican nomination last night, despite only grudging support from GOP voters. For example, could he really have felt that good about winning his home state of Arizona with less than 50% of the vote? Still, he captured more states than his rivals, including the huge winner-take-all delegate prizes California and New York, and opened up a delegate lead that will be very difficult to overcome.
It was a terrible day for Mitt Romney. His campaign might have had an inkling that things would not go well yesterday when he was ganged up on in West Viriginia. Apparently, at the Republican convention there early Tuesday, the first ballot gave Romney the lead. Folks broke for lunch, and afterward, miraculously, all the other candidates' supporters immediately switched their allegiance to Mike Huckabee, giving him a narrow 50-47 victory over Romney. Ouch.
Things only continued downhill from there for Romney, as he managed to win just Massachusetts and Utah -- both states where he had lived -- as well as a handful of other western states. He failed in his attempt to claim California and emerge as the lone conservative alternative to McCain. Indeed, by the end of the night, and despite Romney's speech to supporters assuring them of his intention to stay in the race for the long haul, media speculation about his ending the campaign was running rampant. Our take -- unless Mitt considers throwing money down a hole a source of entertainment, we recommend he hang up his spurs; he can't win.
Meanwhile, Huckabee played the role of Romney spoiler to a tee on Tuesday. In addition to his West Virginia victory, the Huckster ran the table in the southern primary contests in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia and Tennessee, splitting the anti-McCain vote and thus aiding his Arizona rival. Huckabee has limited appeal outside religious conservatives, and for this reason is not any real threat to actually win the nomination. But he has killed Romney and continues to win states along the way, no doubt positioning himself to lobby for the vice-presidential slot on the ticket. One can certainly debate the opportunities and risks of having Huckabee on the GOP ticket in November, but he pretty clearly wants it.
On the Democratic side, yesterday's results tightened the race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama even further and set up a long, drawn-out fight for the nomination - a dynamic we think benefits Obama.
Keep in mind, the Clinton camp long believed that February 5th was the day they would deliver a knockout punch to Obama and wrap up the nomination. Think about it, team Clinton envisoned a mega-state primary day where she could take advantage of much higher name ID, key Democratic endorsements and a decided fundraising advantage to blow Obama out of the water. The Obama campaign just didn't cooperate.
On the money side, Obama stayed nearly even with Clinton through the end of 2007, and badly outraised her in January 2008 -- $32 million (a single-month record for a presidential candidate) to $12 million. His campaign also (brilliantly, in our judgment) fanned out and organized the numerous caucus states contested on Feb. 5th -- states like Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Minnesota and North Dakota, where grassroots organizing really pays off -- and won them all decisively, thus taking the lion's share of those delegates. And Obama quickly made up ground in all February 5th states the more he campaigned -- not enough to win the day, but enough to battle Clinton to a draw. For a number of reasons, we think he is in the stronger position going foward.
Reason #1 -- Money. In addition to the January fundraising disparity, word came Wednesday that Clinton had loaned the campaign $5 million to keep things going and that some senior staff is now going without pay. Meanwhile, as of late Wednesday, Obama has apparently raised another $6.3 million -- since the polls closed last night -- a simply stunning development and testament to the advantage of having a huge small donor base that can keep on giving, as opposed to a smaller number of max-out contributors, as Clinton has.
Reason #2 -- Momentum. No matter how the Clinton camp tries to spin it, Tuesday was not a success for them and Obama is gaining fast. One need look no further than the results out of California, which Clinton won by some 400,000 votes. Nearly all her margin, however, came from the early vote. On election day, she and Obama ran about even. Battling her to a draw on Super Tuesday was a boon for his campaign, and will only raise his profile further with voters who are just getting to know him.
Reason #3 -- A Favorable Schedule. The next few weeks, with primaries and caucuses in states like Maryland, Virginia, Washignton D.C., Hawaii, Washington State, and Wisconsin, offer Obama big opportunities to rack up victories, and more importantly, delegates. Furthermore, by having fewer states contested at once, the schedule going forward allows Obama to campaign more intensively in those places, and thus far, the better voters get to know him, the more they like him.
None of this is to say Obama has the nomination wrapped up -- far from it. Hillary Clinton is a tough and savvy campaigner who currently has a lead in the delgate count, albeit a small one. The fluidity the race has shown to date could very easily swing things back to her advantage very fast. People are already beginning to talk about this nomination fight going all the way to the convention in Denver this summer. It is a real possibility.
We are witnessing two very different contests in the two major parties. On the Republican side, a pretty dispirited electorate is settling for a solid guy, but not one who generates much, if any excitement among the party's base. On the Democratic side, two outstanding candidates with campaigns performing at an extremely high level, are locked in a lengthy, heavyweight slugfest, now in the middle rounds. No doubt, each fighter will answer the bell in the coming rounds, and we'll likely have to go to the scorecard for a decision. We'd buy pay-per-view for this one.
Posted by houtopia at February 6, 2008 10:39 PM
Comments
Nice analysis.
Despite all the good points you make about Obama's chances, I think the female component of the party still gives Hillary a slight edge.
It's going to be interesting to watch the rest of the primaries play out, for sure. Elections that still matter in mid-February! When does that ever happen? :)
Posted by: kevin whited at February 7, 2008 09:45 AM
Clearly, the Democratic race could easily go either way.
One interesting point to ponder, what will the current presidential primary dynamics mean for Texas, and specifically for local races here in Harris County?
For example, to me, a decided GOP nomination spells bad news for Ed Emmett on March 4th. Emmett needed a contested presidential race, preferably still with multiple candidates, to bring voters other than the hardcore folks into the primary. If he's left to fend for himself with the usual suspects (and we've all heard that 40-29 Bacarisse poll number that's floating around out there), he's in big trouble. Also, someone might want to let his campaign know that it's generally a good idea with signs to have a legible name on them. The cursive thing is cute and all, but useless for raising name ID, which last I checked, was the point of signs.
On the local Dem side, what happens in state rep races? Dora Olivo vs. Ron Reynolds? Kevin Bailey vs. Armando Walle? Borris Miles vs. Al Edwards? With the likely explosion in turnout, difficult to predict.
What a year!
Posted by: houtopia at February 7, 2008 10:14 PM