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March 27, 2008
GOP Congressional Blues
The Times Magazine is out with a preview of Benjamin Wallace-Wells' must-read article on the grim state of affairs for the National Republican Congressional Committee.
The long but fascinating article focuses heavily on NRCC head and Oklahoma Congressman Tom Cole, who comes across as a sharp and sympathetic, if unrealistic operative turned legislator. Cole has the tall order of trying to reverse the GOP's declining fortunes in the U.S. House of Representatives, after taking a 30 seat bath in the 2006 elections. With 28 Republican retirements this year (compared to just a handful of Democrats) and a stunning special election loss of retiring former Speaker Denny Hastert's semmingly safe seat, the NRCC's prospects don't look particularly promising. But Cole remains sunny, at least outwardly -- hey, what else is the guy supposed to do? It's his job.
Cole's challenges are many. No money, a lack of quality candidates willing to run, and perhaps a fundamental electoral shift, particularly among once reliably Republican suburban voters. This last point is the article's most interesting, though it may be too early to confirm. As we've written many times, however, it is clear the GOP brand just ain't what it used to be. And confirmation comes in the piece from no less a source than former RNC Chair and George W. Bush campaign guru Ken Mehlman, who warns that the 2006 election result was not a one-time blip but indicative of a deeper problem for the party.
The article offers delicious food for thought. Be sure to add it to your weekend menu.
Posted by houtopia at 11:21 PM | Comments (0)
March 25, 2008
Republican Countywides On Defense
State Senator Rodney Ellis has long been a passionate advocate for reforming the criminal justice system in Texas. Lately he has been working to gain support for creation of a public defender's office, to better provide for indigent defense.
Lisa Falkenberg has an interesting column on the subject in today's Chronicle. In it, she surveys local Republican and Democratic candidates for County Judge and District Attorney, and a clear divide emerges.
The Democratic candidates, C.O. Bradford for District Attorney and David Mincberg for County Judge offer unqualified support for establishment of a public defender's office. The Republicans -- Kelly Siegler and Pat Lykos, who are in a runoff for the D.A. nomination, and Ed Emmett, the incumbent County Judge -- were decidedly less committed to the concept.
Emmett's response to Falkenberg was especially interesting -- he hasn't thought about it. Troubling if true, particularly in light of the fact that the sitting District Attorney just resigned in disgrace. One wonders, how many people did Chuck Rosenthal send to lengthy prison terms or even death row, while impaired by drugs or alcohol? How many defendants might have prevailed if they had access to effective legal counsel? (We by no means suggest that all public defenders here are ineffective, but under the current system it is clear many defendants do not receive quality representation.) In light of the media firestorm surrounding the District Attorney since Christmas, has Judge Emmett really not bothered to consider the problem? Perhaps it's time for that reading material to go to the top of the pile.
Posted by houtopia at 05:21 PM | Comments (0)
March 19, 2008
On Wright, Race And The Race
We are back after an unplanned hiatus -- hey, life happens, right?
As everyone who follows American politics is now aware, Barack Obama gave a remarkable speech yesterday in response to controversy created by his association with his now-retired pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, who's inflammatory remarks from the pulpit about racism in America have no doubt damaged his former parishoner's presidential prospects. How much, is not yet clear, but the situation is a real problem for Obama.
The speech was superb. It was honest and groundbreaking in its head-on tackling of the very thorny issue of race in America. Unlike Mitt Romney, who's supposed speech on his Mormon faith scarcely mentioned it, Obama did not shy away from discussing Wright; no way he could have, in our judgment, and survived politically. Rather, he once again repudiated Wright's overheated and sometimes anti-American rhetoric without rejecting the man, whom he characterized as family. Not dumping him was frankly crticial to maintaining the speech's authenticity. Throwing Wright under the bus after sticking with him and the church for more than 20 years would have reduced Obama to little more than a Romneyesque panderer.
The master stroke of the speech was Obama's ability to pivot the discussion from a specific response to Wright's damaging sermons, to an equally difficult but much broader discussion about race in America. While Obama refused to excuse Wright's comments, he did seek to explain the black American perspective that informed them - pretty effectively, we thought. But Obama also sought to offer the white American perspective on race (remember, he's half white too), and made a quite reasonable case.
Finally, Obama challenged Americans to approach race with eyes wide open, and begin to transcend it. He did not offer a naive wave of the magic wand and make it go away approach. Rather, he suggested a start at healing old wounds and beginning to move beyond. Again, quite effective rhetorically, and genuine but plausible in its aim.
The big question is, did the speech help Obama politically? Probably some, but it's too soon to say. We'll all watch the polls over the next week or two and gauge what lasting damage has been done to his campaign. We shall see.
We're going to go out on a limb and suggest that the timing of the Wright controversy was perhaps as good as could be expected for the Obama camp. That's right folks, the press may have done him a favor by airing this now. Think about it, for maximum electoral damage, wouldn't this story have been most effective two weeks before the next set of primaries begin, rather than six weeks out? Or from the Republican perspective in say, late September or early October? To boot, folks are somewhat distracted now by Eliot Spitzer and the cratering economy.
Insiders have known (including the Obama team) that this Wright story was coming. Recall that the campaign disinvited Wright from Obama's kickoff speech in Springfield, Illinois over a year ago. There was clearly good reason for doing so. Now, Obama is solidly in the lead for the primary nomination, a lead that virtually all experts acknowledge will be very difficult for Hillary Clinton to overcome. 80% of the primary states have already voted, and nobody votes again for another month, by which time the story likely will have lost much of its punch and Obama will have had time to rebound with a new positive narrative.
If you're the Obama camp, and you knew you were going to take the hit at some point, what better time than now? Surely not right before Pennsylvania, North Carolina and other states vote. Surely not in the fall when the GOP would swiftboat him with it. If it had to happen (and clearly it did), now was the time. It's out there, you take a punch and a dip in your polling, but you have time to deal with it and recover to finish strong for the nomination. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger, right?
At the risk of sounding heretical, perhaps the Obama folks wanted this now. What better way for their guy to solidify his place in the history books than to take a potentially fatal hit like the Wright story, meet it head on, and rise again? Highly risky of course, but hasn't that been his entire campaign? Future developments may prove us crazy, or maybe not, but it's worth contemplating.
One last unrelated item from the GOP side of the presidential equation. A bit has been made on the blogs and in the press the last day or so about John McCain's blunder in describing Iran as having trained Al Qaeda in Iraq. Keep an eye on these blunders and how they are covered. An important, if subtle attack on McCain in the general election will be that the Arizona senator is simply past his prime mentally (think Reagan in the second term.) Gaffes, mental fuzziness, lack of knowledge of or interest in key issues, such as the economy will be used as a weapon against McCain, and could be quite effective. Remember Bob Dole falling off the stage in 1996?
Posted by houtopia at 09:30 PM | Comments (2)
March 06, 2008
Texas Primary Storm Passes
We survived. The ballots have been cast, the caucuses held, and the national press has packed up and moved on. The 2008 Texas Presidential Primary tornado touched down and dramatically impacted the state, as the rest of the nation (and world) looked on.
On the Republican side, Texas helped officially lock up the presidential nomination for Arizona Senator John McCain, and at the end of the evening his chief remaining rival - Mike Huckabee - exited the race. Just under 1.4 million Texans voted in the Republican primary, double the number who voted in 2004.
On the Democratic side, Texas was ground zero in a titanic struggle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. It was the only close contest of the four around the country decided on Tuesday, and it basically ended up a draw. Nearly 2.9 million Texans voted in the Democratic primary, shattering the state record of 2.1 million set back in 1972, when this was still a one-party Democratic state. Clinton eeked out a narrow popular vote victory, while Obama looks like he will end up with a small delegate advantage based on the complicated system of awarding primary delegates, in addition to his victory in the caucus portion of the election, where one-third of the delegates were designated.
Needless to say Texas, like Ohio, was a must-win state for Senator Clinton, and she can make at least a partial claim to that effect after Tuesday, allowing her to go on. Her modest combined net delegate take (less than 10) from the evening's four contests, however, did not significantly erode Obama's advantage of 100 or so. In other words, the Clinton campaign's death-defying Tuesday night performance largely halted calls for her to drop out, and certainly gave her candidacy some much-needed momentum. Her fundamental position, however, did not change. Clinton remains behind Barack Obama in both delegates and the popular vote count, and is running out of time to catch him. More on that in a future post.
The unprecedented explosion in turnout no doubt also had a profound effect on down ballot race across the state. Thankfully, U.S. Senate candidate Rick Noriega was able to avoid a runoff against three minor candidates and sew up the Democratic nomination. Tight races in a number of Democratic and Republican primary state house contests resulted in a pretty good night for Speaker Tom Craddick. Here in Harris County, one "Craddick D" went down, while another was returned to office after being defeated in 2006.
Nearly 410,000 ballots were cast in the Democratic primary in Harris County, five times the number cast in 2004. This much larger, much less locally focused electorate made for a most unpredictable result for down ballot local candidates, particularly in judicial races. Simply having first position on the ballot, for example, seemed to be worth quite a bit in many of these races. Not necessarily an ideal way to choose judges for the bench, but that's the way it is.
Evening precinct conventions were hugely attended, and while there were some reports of difficulties at some of them, for the most part this potentially catastophic process ran very smoothly, which is a credit to the local Democratic Party and scores of very dedicated volunteers.
It has been an mind-boggling, exhilirating few weeks in Texas politics. Don't know about you, but we're pooped.
Posted by houtopia at 07:16 PM | Comments (0)
March 03, 2008
D-Day Arrives
Finally. The political hysteria that has gripped Texas over the last few weeks reaches a climax tomorrow. That's right folks, primary day has arrived, a fact that no doubt brings a mix of high anxiety and relief to candidates and their teams across the state.
While the Republican presidential nomination has effectively been decided, (tomorrow's contests may well push McCain across the delegate threshold he needs to wrap the race up), for the two Democratic contenders, Tuesday's big showdowns in Texas and Ohio are hotly contested, and could prove decisive, or not. Early voting participation in the Texas Democratic Primary was unprecedented, and there is no sign of a let-up on Election Day.
And as the Clinton and Obama campaigns slug it out at the top of the ticket, the tremendous increase in voter turnout they have generated in Texas has profound implications for candidates below them on the ballot, from Rick Noriega and the nobodys running for United States Senate down to folks running for local office like constable. What do those 2.5 million or so Texans voting in the Democratic Primary do in those down-ballot races? Most will know little if anything about the other races. How many skip them? How many just pick a name?
And on the Republican side, what does a fairly average turnout mean for their down-ballot contests, like the race for Harris County Judge between Ed Emmett and Charles Bacarisse, and several contested State House primaries? Given that Republican moderates seem to be heading for the other primary this year, we think it favors the more definably "conservative" candidates, but we'll see.
As our last posting warned, prepare for a long day tomorrow. We expect lines to vote, particularly in the urban areas, and the possibility of having to extend voting beyond 7pm. We expect a chaotic caucus process, and significant delays in reporting the primary results. Meanwhile, the nation will be watching. No pressure, right? Here we go!
Posted by houtopia at 10:04 PM | Comments (0)
March 01, 2008
Primary Anxiety
Early voting in the Texas primaries has come to a close. Voter turnout, on the Democratic side in particular, has been simply out of sight. Early vote participants in the Democratic primary outnumbered Republicans roughly three to one, a ratio that is unlikely to change on Tuesday, March 4th, which is Election Day.
In Harris County, roughly 170,000 folks voted early in the Democratic primary, compared to about 52,000 Republicans. Last night here in Houston, there were reports of people standing in line to vote until nearly 10 p.m. -- three hours after the polls officially closed. Enormous excitement among voters here in Texas and huge early voting participation are no doubt developments we should all be proud of, but as a practical matter they hint at big potential problems on Tuesday.
Typically, early voting in Harris County accounts for roughly 35% of the total election vote. Let's be conservative and say that this year, given a highly motivated electorate, early vote is half the total. That means Tuesday we will see at least 220,000 people turn out to vote in the two major party primaries -- several times the participation normally seen.
Can the county's election apparatus handle it? Harris County Clerk Beverly Kaufman runs a pretty tight ship, but it is not difficult to imagine the system being overwhelmed on Tuesday. Polling locations have already been consolidated. Will there be enough machines, and more importantly, enough workers to accomodate the huge crowds?
In recent history, Texas has been largely irrelevant in national political contests, in both the primary and general election seasons. On the Democratic side, we have a bizarre, arcane caucus system for selecting presidential delegates that has also been irrelevant, since the nomination has been decided in recent years long before the Texas primary. 2008 is obviously very different, and the Texas result may be determinative in selecting the Democratic presidential nominee. (McCain's got it locked up on the Republican side.) Hence, for the first time in a long time, our state has a bright national political spotlight on it.
What happens if the election system is overwhelmed Tuesday? What happens when, after the polls close at 7 p.m., there are still thousands of people waiting to vote, as there were just last night? How will that affect precinct caucuses? And when will we see returns? The early vote and absentee results will likely be released shortly after the polls close, but it could easily be hours after that before we see any further returns. With the national press foucsed here, and millions of Americans waiting for definitive results in the Clinton-Obama contest, how long will we keep them waiting?
Just a few more questions, among many others, to ponder during this unprecedented election season.
Posted by houtopia at 09:38 PM | Comments (2)