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March 01, 2008
Primary Anxiety
Early voting in the Texas primaries has come to a close. Voter turnout, on the Democratic side in particular, has been simply out of sight. Early vote participants in the Democratic primary outnumbered Republicans roughly three to one, a ratio that is unlikely to change on Tuesday, March 4th, which is Election Day.
In Harris County, roughly 170,000 folks voted early in the Democratic primary, compared to about 52,000 Republicans. Last night here in Houston, there were reports of people standing in line to vote until nearly 10 p.m. -- three hours after the polls officially closed. Enormous excitement among voters here in Texas and huge early voting participation are no doubt developments we should all be proud of, but as a practical matter they hint at big potential problems on Tuesday.
Typically, early voting in Harris County accounts for roughly 35% of the total election vote. Let's be conservative and say that this year, given a highly motivated electorate, early vote is half the total. That means Tuesday we will see at least 220,000 people turn out to vote in the two major party primaries -- several times the participation normally seen.
Can the county's election apparatus handle it? Harris County Clerk Beverly Kaufman runs a pretty tight ship, but it is not difficult to imagine the system being overwhelmed on Tuesday. Polling locations have already been consolidated. Will there be enough machines, and more importantly, enough workers to accomodate the huge crowds?
In recent history, Texas has been largely irrelevant in national political contests, in both the primary and general election seasons. On the Democratic side, we have a bizarre, arcane caucus system for selecting presidential delegates that has also been irrelevant, since the nomination has been decided in recent years long before the Texas primary. 2008 is obviously very different, and the Texas result may be determinative in selecting the Democratic presidential nominee. (McCain's got it locked up on the Republican side.) Hence, for the first time in a long time, our state has a bright national political spotlight on it.
What happens if the election system is overwhelmed Tuesday? What happens when, after the polls close at 7 p.m., there are still thousands of people waiting to vote, as there were just last night? How will that affect precinct caucuses? And when will we see returns? The early vote and absentee results will likely be released shortly after the polls close, but it could easily be hours after that before we see any further returns. With the national press foucsed here, and millions of Americans waiting for definitive results in the Clinton-Obama contest, how long will we keep them waiting?
Just a few more questions, among many others, to ponder during this unprecedented election season.
Posted by houtopia at March 1, 2008 09:38 PM
Comments
The Primary elections are institutional political activities. That is, the primary elections are conducted by the Political Parties.
The County Clerk's office works with with the parties to insure they have enough equipment, materials and support on Election Day. However, the parties determine the number of polls, the polling sites and staffing for each poll.
Posted by: hector deleon at March 2, 2008 07:37 AM
Hector,
Thanks for the clarification. Since the primaries in recent years have been rather sleepy affairs, even those of us who are relatively well versed in local political goings-on are somewhat in the dark here.
We're keeping our fingers crossed that all will go smoothly on Tuesday.
Thanks again.
Posted by: houtopia at March 2, 2008 09:50 PM