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April 28, 2008
Rove's Recommendations For Obama
In case you missed it, former GOP political guru and current Newsweek contributor Karl Rove has some words of advice for Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.
While the Republican sage's words were no doubt unsolicited, at least some of them are worth consideration.
Yes, that's right -- as deeply ironic as it may be for Karl Rove to offer sound advice to a Democratic candidate, some (not all) of it has merit. Rove has six suggestions for Obama, so let's quickly examine them.
1. Obama needs a new stump speech. We agree. Rove recommends introducing something fresh that focuses on the general election. Obama has often looked lately like he's going through the motions rhetorically, undermining his top-notch oratory skills. He's also looked tired. Some fresh text might liven him up a bit and help him recapture his political mojo.
2. When faced with a political problem, pick an explanation and stick to it. Again, we agree. One of Obama's chief selling points has been his straightforwardness and refreshing lack of double-talk. His gradual backsliding on the Rev. Wright controversy has made him appear more like any other politician.
3. Bolster your Senate record to improve your resume. This one, not so much. After all, this advice is coming from the man who masterminded the election of the current president, who had few life achivements of any kind, much less governmental.
4. Spend less time campaigning and more in the Senate. Again, not so much. First of all, it's not realistic. How much can he actually get accomplished legislatively in the next few months? More important in the short term is to communicate more specifically and effectively with voters about a policy agenda that is relavent to them.
5. Stop attacking. We're of a mixed mind on this one. Yes, he needs to preserve, as much as possible, his fresh approach and departure from politics as usual. On the other hand, you cannot sit back and allow your opponents to attack and negatively define you. Just ask John Kerry (and Karl Rove.)
6. Be concrete about what the American people can expect from you as president. Sure. Here Obama's relative inexperience hurts him. He simply does not have the breadth of political and policy experience of either of his two opponents, so he's learning as he goes. He's proven a quick study in this regard, but needs to get better still, and fast.
Obama has had a difficult period in his campaign of late. We view it as an unpleasant but necessary rite of passage if he is to be victorious in November. He needs to take his licks, adjust and emerge stronger than before his troubles began. We think he can.
Posted by houtopia at 10:06 PM | Comments (2)
April 25, 2008
Friday Reality Check
We return to the blogging fray after spotty to no participation in recent weeks. From time to time the demands of remunerative labor limit such pursuits, and so it has been. We are glad to be back.
It has been fascinating to observe, without comment here, the continued drama of the Democratic presidential nomination play out on the national stage. True to form, the mainstream press has gone beyond the call of duty in over-hyping and over-analyzing the most sensational aspects of the contest, likely to the detriment of the eventual nominee (who will almost certainly be Obama), but clearly at the expense of both candidates (note the sharp rise in Hillary Cltinon's negatives in polling of late.)
Jeremaiah Wright, Bosnia, "bitter" -- these have been the topics of focus of our esteemed political press (taking the bait of course, from the two rivals and their Republican opponent in waiting) in recent weeks, and the results have been predictable. Wild fluctuations in poll numbers, sophomoric behavior by campaign surrogates (including a certain former president) and incessant puling by the candidates themselves have sullied the field, and a familiar, unpleasant odor has begun to permeate the political scene, making 2008 start to smell a whole lot like years past.
That said, we don't think GOP standard bearer John McCain has leveraged the situation much for his own benefit. He remains tied or slightly behind in most national polls (at a time when he should have his largest lead of the race), he is hardly out defining his candidacy, and his fundraising remains lackluster. McCain's failure to capitalize to date on such favorable circumstances suggests he may not be the general election juggernaut Republicans are hoping for. While beating him won't be easy, it is most certainly doable.
The Democratic contest will certainly continue through May 6th, and likely until June when the last of the 50 states have voted. Tuesday's Pennsylvania result -- a 9% Clinton win -- changed nothing about the dynamic of the race. Clinton won, as expected, but not by enough to significantly erode Obama's delegate or popular vote lead. And while HRC has enjoyed a fundraising boost from her victory, Obama's efforts forced her to spend everything she had in PA. Debts are mounting, huge expenditures in Indiana and North Carolina (the next states to vote) are needed, and Obama continues to raise about $1.5 million a day. Still, she won, so it hardly seems appropriate for her to quit the race at this point.
Obama has had a rough few weeks. A verbal gaffe at a California fundraiser, a poor PA debate performance (even considering the worse performance by the ABC moderators), and a loss Tuesday night tarnished his once infallible political image. On a positive note, Obama did cut Clinton's Pennsylvania lead in half in just a few weeks, and performed better with Anglo voters there than he had in Ohio last month. Frankly, he's looked exhausted in recent days, and might be well served in the long run by getting a little bit of rest to recharge his batteries.
While the Democratic candidates have both taken hits to their respective images lately, we don't believe at this point that the damage will prevent the party from uniting around the nominee this fall. Let's face it folks, the race has hardly been a mud bath. Hell, we've been involved in city council races that were far more brutal than Hillary v. Barack, so people who say the sky is falling simply need to calm down. That said, if this thing goes on too long it will become a problem, because some time is needed to bring everybody back together. A convention fight, for example, could be disastrous.
Since it is highly unlikely Clinton can win the nomination at this point, some speculate her hanging around is designed to make Obama unelectable in November and leave the field open for her in 2012. We doubt it. One need only look at modern presidential election history -- losing Democratic candidates rarely, if ever, get a real second chance from the party; just ask John Edwards. We don't think Hillary would either.
Posted by houtopia at 03:21 PM | Comments (0)
April 09, 2008
RNC Bullish On McCain
Politico is out with an interesting story from Jonathan Martin this evening, in which the Republican National Committee touts current polling in the presidential race. According to RNC internal polling, Arizona Senator and presumptive GOP nominee John McCain currently "holds a solid lead over both his potential general election rivals", Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
Understandably, the RNC is pushing this message out in hopes of bolstering McCain's standing with the press (as if he needed that), as well as the electorate. The Republican establishment likely wants to set the race up as McCain's to lose, as the two Democrats continue to duke it out for the nomination. Again, makes sense.
GOP spin of the polling in Martin's story, however, in our opinion exaggerates McCain's prospects for the fall. The RNC poll gives him a decent lead over either Democrat -- 6 points over Obama and 11 points over Clinton. But a lead right now is hardly surprising. McCain is the presumptive nominee, has bested his Republican rivals and is yet to take the hits coming his way in the general election. Meanwhile the Democrats continue to rough each other up and their primary race goes on. To boot, while many Americans do not yet have a clear idea of who McCain is, they have vaguely positive feelings about him based (understandably) on his long military and public service. In other words, his poll numbers now are about as good as they're likely to get.
As the story notes, Democratic National Committee polling shows that while McCain is viewed favorably by the electorate, much of his support is soft, given that most Americans know little about him. Also problematic for McCain is that the public is not with him on key issues such as Iraq and the economy, distinctions that will undoubtedly be drawn by the Democratic nominee this fall.
Our favorite line in the piece came from Republican pollster Ed Goeas, who, in attempting to play up McCain's advantage while Democrats continue to fight, said that McCain can begin to define himself now and the days tick by where Democrats cannot. Nice try Ed. This argument would make sense if McCain had any resources with which to define himself to the public, but he's broke. In fact, day after day passes where John McCain loses the opportunity to define himself while Democrats stay in the forefront of public consciousness.
John McCain is at his apex in the race for the 2008 presidency. Given that there are 7 months to go before the election, don't prepare his inauguration just yet.
Posted by houtopia at 10:16 PM | Comments (1)