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April 25, 2008
Friday Reality Check
We return to the blogging fray after spotty to no participation in recent weeks. From time to time the demands of remunerative labor limit such pursuits, and so it has been. We are glad to be back.
It has been fascinating to observe, without comment here, the continued drama of the Democratic presidential nomination play out on the national stage. True to form, the mainstream press has gone beyond the call of duty in over-hyping and over-analyzing the most sensational aspects of the contest, likely to the detriment of the eventual nominee (who will almost certainly be Obama), but clearly at the expense of both candidates (note the sharp rise in Hillary Cltinon's negatives in polling of late.)
Jeremaiah Wright, Bosnia, "bitter" -- these have been the topics of focus of our esteemed political press (taking the bait of course, from the two rivals and their Republican opponent in waiting) in recent weeks, and the results have been predictable. Wild fluctuations in poll numbers, sophomoric behavior by campaign surrogates (including a certain former president) and incessant puling by the candidates themselves have sullied the field, and a familiar, unpleasant odor has begun to permeate the political scene, making 2008 start to smell a whole lot like years past.
That said, we don't think GOP standard bearer John McCain has leveraged the situation much for his own benefit. He remains tied or slightly behind in most national polls (at a time when he should have his largest lead of the race), he is hardly out defining his candidacy, and his fundraising remains lackluster. McCain's failure to capitalize to date on such favorable circumstances suggests he may not be the general election juggernaut Republicans are hoping for. While beating him won't be easy, it is most certainly doable.
The Democratic contest will certainly continue through May 6th, and likely until June when the last of the 50 states have voted. Tuesday's Pennsylvania result -- a 9% Clinton win -- changed nothing about the dynamic of the race. Clinton won, as expected, but not by enough to significantly erode Obama's delegate or popular vote lead. And while HRC has enjoyed a fundraising boost from her victory, Obama's efforts forced her to spend everything she had in PA. Debts are mounting, huge expenditures in Indiana and North Carolina (the next states to vote) are needed, and Obama continues to raise about $1.5 million a day. Still, she won, so it hardly seems appropriate for her to quit the race at this point.
Obama has had a rough few weeks. A verbal gaffe at a California fundraiser, a poor PA debate performance (even considering the worse performance by the ABC moderators), and a loss Tuesday night tarnished his once infallible political image. On a positive note, Obama did cut Clinton's Pennsylvania lead in half in just a few weeks, and performed better with Anglo voters there than he had in Ohio last month. Frankly, he's looked exhausted in recent days, and might be well served in the long run by getting a little bit of rest to recharge his batteries.
While the Democratic candidates have both taken hits to their respective images lately, we don't believe at this point that the damage will prevent the party from uniting around the nominee this fall. Let's face it folks, the race has hardly been a mud bath. Hell, we've been involved in city council races that were far more brutal than Hillary v. Barack, so people who say the sky is falling simply need to calm down. That said, if this thing goes on too long it will become a problem, because some time is needed to bring everybody back together. A convention fight, for example, could be disastrous.
Since it is highly unlikely Clinton can win the nomination at this point, some speculate her hanging around is designed to make Obama unelectable in November and leave the field open for her in 2012. We doubt it. One need only look at modern presidential election history -- losing Democratic candidates rarely, if ever, get a real second chance from the party; just ask John Edwards. We don't think Hillary would either.
Posted by houtopia at April 25, 2008 03:21 PM