« April 2008 | Main | June 2008 »
May 28, 2008
Et Tu, Scott?
Today's political bombshell, of course, was the release of former Bush White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan's scathing memoir about his time at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue -- "What Happened: Inside the Bush White House and Washington's Culture of Deception."
McClellan, who was White House Press Secretary from May 2003 to April 2006, and who is the son of former Texas State Comptroller and gubernatorial candidate Carole Keeton Strayhorn, apparently pulled few punches in a book that has the political class abuzz and Bush loyalists very unhappy.
He depicts a White House and a president consumed by secrecy, less than forthcoming with the American people and unwilling to admit mistakes. To Bush's detractors such characterizations are hardly a surprise. The shock, rather, is that the belly punches are coming from a former keeper of Bush World, where loyalty is prized above all else.
McClellan apparently decries the less than honest selling of the Iraq War to the public, and is especially critical of Dick Cheney -- the "magic man" who got whatever he wanted, Condi Rice -- who seemed to care more about pleasing the president than giving him wise advice, and Karl Rove -- who was willing to do anything to win. McClellan doesn't spare himself from criticism, saying "I fell far short of living up to the kind of public servant I wanted to be."
Predictably, reaction from Team Bush was swift and less than positive. Current White House flack Dana Perino called McClellan "disgruntled" and, echoing a Karl Rove characterization of the book, said "this was not the Scott we knew." And former colleagues Dan Bartlett and Ari Fleischer obligingly piled on.
Again, such a reaction from the Bush folks is to be expected, but the speed and ferocity of the response suggest McClellan's words cut deep. (The old political adage, of course, is you know how effective an attack has been by how loudly the target yells.)
McClellan's breach against Bush likely means he's not planning on a continued career in Republican politics, at least not anytime soon. Such behavior is especially frowned upon in the Grand Old Party. Hey, maybe he's joined his mother as newly independent. What will be interesting to see is whether McClellan's new candor opens the door for other former insiders to follow suit. The administration is a sinking ship these days, with senior folks bailing left and right leaving the boss to go down at the helm alone. We shall see.
Fascinating times.
Posted by houtopia at 08:56 PM | Comments (0)
May 16, 2008
Governor Dan?
Way back in December 2006, at the end of a post-election piece on current Texas Governor Rick Perry after his landslide reelection with 39% of the vote, we speculated that Houston State Senator and radio talk show personality Dan Patrick might have his own eye on the governor's mansion.
Patrick had just been easily elected to the State Senate, and was in the process of expanding his radio presence to the Dallas-Fort Worth area, as well as San Antonio. During the subsequent legislative session, Patrick used the airwaves as a bully pulpit to rail against issues like the business margins tax, the Trans Texas Corridor, and of course, his favorite bogeyman, illegal immigrants.
Whatever one may think of Patrick's politics or effectiveness as a legislator, he's a pretty effective demagogue and rabble rouser. With talk radio stations in the state's three largest media markets, the good senator has strategically begun building a devoted listenership on the far right, devotees who could perhaps be mobilized for say, a statewide run for office?
Well, this afternoon via Quorum Report we get the first inkling of just that -- danpatrickforgovernor.com. There is not much to the site at this point, and the hosts, John and Hope Hennessy, are quick to point out Patrick has not sanctioned it. We've got ourselves an honest to goodness draft movement folks!
Who knows whether this effort will amount to much or where it will lead, but it certainly passes for entertainment on a Friday afternoon. And we're betting there are a few smiles over in the Bill White camp. Stay tuned.
Posted by houtopia at 04:15 PM | Comments (0)
May 14, 2008
Thank You, Mr. President
While last night's headliner electoral matchup may have been in West Viriginia, where Hillary Clinton scored a convincing but largely meaningless victory, the political main event for many was in northern Mississippi. It was there, in the state's 1st Congressional District, which includes Elvis Presley's birthplace of Tupelo, that the evening's real news was made.
Democrat Travis Childers defeated Republican Greg Davis there by a comfortable 8-point margin, handing the GOP its third consecutive Congressional special election loss of the year, all in solidly Republican districts. No doubt last night extended NRCC head Tom Cole's already lengthy stay at the Heartbreak Hotel. (We know, it's bad, but we couldn't resist.)
For all the hand-wringing about what the ongoing Democratic primary contest may or may not be doing to soon-to-be nominee Barack Obama's prospects in November, these three recent actual D vs. R election results spell bad news for Republicans this fall. (The two previous losses were in Denny Hastert's Illinois district and last week in Louisiana.)
The GOP brand has been gravely wounded, and most of the damage has been done by an unwitting assailant, President George W. Bush. The president, who recently achieved the dubious distinction of having the worst job approval numbers (71% disapproval) in the 70-year history of the Gallup Poll, has single-handedly driven the Republican Party, not to mention the country, off a cliff.
Even here in his home state of Texas, Bush ain't what he used to be. A recent Rasmussen Reports survey gave George W. just a 39% job approval rating in the Lone Star State. His negative coattails are even reaching down to the U.S. Senate contest between incumbent John Cornyn and challenger Rick Noriega, where Cornyn's once comfortable lead has dwindled to just 4 points before campaigning has even begun.
To boot, Republicans have a 2008 presidential nominee who hardly seems to excite the party faithful. Little noticed in recent primary results have been the consistent 25% of GOP primary voters who have backed someone other than John McCain, despite him being the de facto nominee. This lack of unity suggests McCain has a "base" problem in the making, one which could be exacerbated by former Republican Congressman Bob Barr's independent presidential candidacy. Indeed, Barr could reprise Ralph Nader's 2000 spolier role in the fall, this time doing in the Republican candidate.
The news media have focused on the Democratic contest in recent months, to the exclusion of almost all else. And given the historic and extraordinarily competitive nature of the Democratic race, such focus is understandable. It has obscured, however, a very important dynamic shaping up for November 4th -- Republicans on the ballot, from top to bottom, are in big trouble. And for that they can thank their fearless leader, President George W. Bush.
Posted by houtopia at 06:12 PM | Comments (0)
May 05, 2008
Hoosiers And Tar Heels
Polling leading up to tomorrow's Democratic presidential primary elections in Indiana and North Carolina has varied widely in recent days, and given the surprising results in previous states, we generally shy away from predictions. That said, it is interesting to look at possible outcomes tomorrow evening.
Let's begin with North Carolina. Polls in the last week have shown a range of Obama leads, from as small as 5 points to as large as 15 or so. What accounts for the differences? Some of it, of course, is explained by normal margin of error from sample to sample. More important, however, is each poll's turnout model -- specifically, what percentage of the electorate is African American.
Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com posted an excellent piece on the subject this morning. He shows that in recent NC polls, the African American percentage of the sample has been as low as 25%, and as high as 37%. Given the black community's nearly unified support for Obama in previous primaries (support that has become more monolithic as the contest has polarized along racial lines), it's share of the total electorate is crucial to Obama's fortunes in the Tar Heel State tomorrow.
Early voting in North Carolina ended Saturday, and a look at the demographics of that vote is instructive. Blumethal cites analysis of the early vote showing African Americans constituted 40% of the total. Should that percentage hold through Election Day, Obama will have a very good night in North Carolina. Even if it drops a bit, to say, 37% of the total, a double digit win for him is likely.
FiveThirtyEight.com has posted a nifty interactive spreadsheet to play with tomorrow's possible NC results. Our bet? Obama by 11 points.
As for Indiana, Blumenthal has posted similar analysis for the Hoosier State. Here, we see African American vote share in polling has ranged from 9% to 20% of the total. He notes that there is far less historical context in Indiana on which to gauge likely black participation, so everyone's flying a bit blind.
Our decidedly unscientific guess for Indiana tomorrow night? Clinton by 6 points. In other words, on the race goes.
Posted by houtopia at 09:11 PM | Comments (0)