« Rove's Recommendations For Obama | Main | Thank You, Mr. President »
May 05, 2008
Hoosiers And Tar Heels
Polling leading up to tomorrow's Democratic presidential primary elections in Indiana and North Carolina has varied widely in recent days, and given the surprising results in previous states, we generally shy away from predictions. That said, it is interesting to look at possible outcomes tomorrow evening.
Let's begin with North Carolina. Polls in the last week have shown a range of Obama leads, from as small as 5 points to as large as 15 or so. What accounts for the differences? Some of it, of course, is explained by normal margin of error from sample to sample. More important, however, is each poll's turnout model -- specifically, what percentage of the electorate is African American.
Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com posted an excellent piece on the subject this morning. He shows that in recent NC polls, the African American percentage of the sample has been as low as 25%, and as high as 37%. Given the black community's nearly unified support for Obama in previous primaries (support that has become more monolithic as the contest has polarized along racial lines), it's share of the total electorate is crucial to Obama's fortunes in the Tar Heel State tomorrow.
Early voting in North Carolina ended Saturday, and a look at the demographics of that vote is instructive. Blumethal cites analysis of the early vote showing African Americans constituted 40% of the total. Should that percentage hold through Election Day, Obama will have a very good night in North Carolina. Even if it drops a bit, to say, 37% of the total, a double digit win for him is likely.
FiveThirtyEight.com has posted a nifty interactive spreadsheet to play with tomorrow's possible NC results. Our bet? Obama by 11 points.
As for Indiana, Blumenthal has posted similar analysis for the Hoosier State. Here, we see African American vote share in polling has ranged from 9% to 20% of the total. He notes that there is far less historical context in Indiana on which to gauge likely black participation, so everyone's flying a bit blind.
Our decidedly unscientific guess for Indiana tomorrow night? Clinton by 6 points. In other words, on the race goes.
Posted by houtopia at May 5, 2008 09:11 PM