« Hoosiers And Tar Heels | Main | Governor Dan? »
May 14, 2008
Thank You, Mr. President
While last night's headliner electoral matchup may have been in West Viriginia, where Hillary Clinton scored a convincing but largely meaningless victory, the political main event for many was in northern Mississippi. It was there, in the state's 1st Congressional District, which includes Elvis Presley's birthplace of Tupelo, that the evening's real news was made.
Democrat Travis Childers defeated Republican Greg Davis there by a comfortable 8-point margin, handing the GOP its third consecutive Congressional special election loss of the year, all in solidly Republican districts. No doubt last night extended NRCC head Tom Cole's already lengthy stay at the Heartbreak Hotel. (We know, it's bad, but we couldn't resist.)
For all the hand-wringing about what the ongoing Democratic primary contest may or may not be doing to soon-to-be nominee Barack Obama's prospects in November, these three recent actual D vs. R election results spell bad news for Republicans this fall. (The two previous losses were in Denny Hastert's Illinois district and last week in Louisiana.)
The GOP brand has been gravely wounded, and most of the damage has been done by an unwitting assailant, President George W. Bush. The president, who recently achieved the dubious distinction of having the worst job approval numbers (71% disapproval) in the 70-year history of the Gallup Poll, has single-handedly driven the Republican Party, not to mention the country, off a cliff.
Even here in his home state of Texas, Bush ain't what he used to be. A recent Rasmussen Reports survey gave George W. just a 39% job approval rating in the Lone Star State. His negative coattails are even reaching down to the U.S. Senate contest between incumbent John Cornyn and challenger Rick Noriega, where Cornyn's once comfortable lead has dwindled to just 4 points before campaigning has even begun.
To boot, Republicans have a 2008 presidential nominee who hardly seems to excite the party faithful. Little noticed in recent primary results have been the consistent 25% of GOP primary voters who have backed someone other than John McCain, despite him being the de facto nominee. This lack of unity suggests McCain has a "base" problem in the making, one which could be exacerbated by former Republican Congressman Bob Barr's independent presidential candidacy. Indeed, Barr could reprise Ralph Nader's 2000 spolier role in the fall, this time doing in the Republican candidate.
The news media have focused on the Democratic contest in recent months, to the exclusion of almost all else. And given the historic and extraordinarily competitive nature of the Democratic race, such focus is understandable. It has obscured, however, a very important dynamic shaping up for November 4th -- Republicans on the ballot, from top to bottom, are in big trouble. And for that they can thank their fearless leader, President George W. Bush.
Posted by houtopia at May 14, 2008 06:12 PM