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October 07, 2008
Georgia On The Mind
Yesterday, Nate Silver over at 538 penned a very interesting piece about early voting patterns in Georgia (the one with Atlanta, not Tblisi.)
Ballots are already being cast there, and the turnout patterns so far are quite remarkable. African Americans, who typically comprise about 25% of the Georgia electorate, are nearly 40% of the early voters to date. Silver, who is a talented numbers guy, looks at the possible electoral implications of this pattern.
In short, an Obama win in Georgia, while perhaps still unlikely, is not out of the question. We suspect, however, that this development may have more profound implications for the U.S. Senate race there, where GOP incumbent Saxby Chambliss now finds himself tied, according to two polls (Survey USA and Research 2000) with Democratic challenger Jim Martin.
If Obama is winning Georgia (which we still think is unlikely), it will be fairly meaningless electorally, because it likely means the race nationally is a blowout. If Democrats are in range of winning the GA Senate race, however, it may signal they are indeed approaching that magic 60-seat number. We shall see.
Posted by houtopia at October 7, 2008 08:53 AM
Comments
Posted by: IVG at October 7, 2008 03:35 PM