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January 20, 2009
A Beautiful Day
It is a beautiful morning here in Houston, Texas - crisp and clear as a bell.
An equally beautiful, and frankly amazing sight, is the sea of Americans who have filled their National Mall in Washington to celebrate the inauguration of Barack Obama as the 44th President of the United States. Obama's swearing in today is an enormous moment in the history of this country. It offers the nation the chance to perhaps exorcise some demons from its troubled past concerning race.
Beyond today's huge symbolism, Obama's assuming the reigns of government, bolstered by large majorities in Congress, likely means substantial changes in policy following the George W. Bush presidency. Hallelujah.
President Obama takes office at a difficult time for the country. The tasks before him are enormous. He will make mistakes. He is a person, however, of enormous talent and capability who has surrounded himself with the best.
We send warm congratulations to Washington, and hope for success in his administration.
Welcome, Mr. President. Best wishes and God's speed.
Posted by houtopia at 07:52 AM | Comments (0)
January 15, 2009
Worried About 2010
Much of the political oxygen in Texas was sucked up today by the two potential adversaries in the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary -- incumbent Governor Rick Perry and U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison. After flirting with challenging Perry twice before, this time Hutchison so far is demonstrating she is more serious about actually making the race.
Campaign finance reports for state candidates and officeholders were due today, and Senator Hutchison went all in, transferring nearly $8 million from her Senate campaign to her gubernatorial effort. Perry, no slouch, raised nearly $5 million of his own in the second half of 2008 and begins the year with $6.6 million in the bank. These are impressive numbers from both, and they signal a battle royale for the 2010 GOP nomination. (Paul Burka has an insightful new article on the race in the new issue of Texas Monthly.)
The question is, what Democrat will challenge the Republican nominee? Two potentially strong contenders, Houston Mayor Bill White and former State Comptroller John Sharp, have calculated that trying for Hutchison's Senate seat, when she steps down, is a better bet. (Considering she is the state' s most popular politician and probably has at least an even shot of winning the GOP primary, it's not an unreasonable calculation.)
Trouble with that is, no one knows if or when before the November 2010 general election Hutchison will actually quit the Senate. Legally, she isn't required to do so to run for governor, and as a story today at politico.com notes, Hutchison is under increasing pressure to stay in her Senate seat as long as possible to prevent any chance of Democrats gaining a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority there.
Even if Hutchison were to resign her seat early, there is virtually no chance she would time her departure so that the contest to elect her successor would happen in the November 2010 general election. So, the great likelihood, for now at least, is that neither Bill White nor John Sharp will be atop the ticket for Texas Democrats in 2010. Again we ask, who will?
The question matters greatly, even though Republicans maintain an advantage in statewide elections. First of all, it is far from certain that Hutchison will actually run against Perry or beat him if she does. She hasn't had a real race since winning her Senate seat 15 years ago, and it is not clear how she would handle a tough primary campaign. And given that Perry limped to reelection in 2006 with just 39% of the vote, a strong Democratic candidate would have a real chance to beat him in 2010 if he is the GOP nominee.
Second, even if retaking the governor's mansion proves too tall an order for Democrats in two years, running a strong campaign for the office is vitally important to the state's political future. The reason? Redistricting.
A major piece of the 2011 session of the Texas Legislature will be state legislative and Congressional reapportionment (another word for redistricting.) After the 2010 Census, new district lines for the State House & Senate, as well as U.S. Congress (where Texas stands to gain 3 or 4 new seats by most estimates) will be drawn and approved by the Legislature.
Each of these three respective redistricting plans -- State House, State Senate & U.S. Congress -- must be approved by both houses of the Texas Legislature and signed by the governor. With a Democratic governor, egregious GOP gerrymanders could be vetoed. A perhaps more attainable goal for Democrats -- retaking the Texas House -- could also prevent extreme partisan Republican redistricting plans from being enacted. A net gain of just two State House seats in 2010 would flip the current GOP 76-74 margin to Democrats, and likely block any extreme Republican redistricting plan.
Here's why having a real Democratic campaign for governor matters. Obviously, winning the race would have huge implications for state government in Texas. Even running a strong race and falling short, however, could have a major impact, particularly concerning State House races.
Democrats have closed a 26-seat Republican advantage in the Texas House to two seats in just a few years, and virtually all those gains have come in the state's major urban areas. Critical to those successes has been support from base Democratic voters, especially African Americans and Latinos. Democrats won some legislative seats in DFW and Houston in 2008 based on strong base Democratic voting. Absent a strong top of the ticket race for governor in 2010, however, Democratic turnout in urban areas will likely be lackluster and could have serious consequences in the State House.
The governor's race in Texas drives the character and intensity of the election in non-presidential years, and without a competitive gubernatorial contest that drives base Democratic voter turnout in 2010, not only will Democrats find it difficult to gain new legislative seats, they may well lose some of those gained in 2008.
As of now, no Democratic candidate for Texas Governor has emerged, much less a serious contender. And that is why we are officially worried about 2010.
Posted by houtopia at 10:43 PM | Comments (0)
January 14, 2009
Less Than Two Days To Fail Texas
Well, folks, you've got to give the Republicans in the Texas Senate and their fearless leader - Lt. Governor David Dewhurst - their props. It took them less than 36 hours into the 81st legislative session to destroy any modicum of cooperation in the normally collegial Senate.
As we wrote last night, Senate Republicans made their first priority suspension of the historic "two-thirds rule" to consider bills on a voter ID requirement and on matters related to redistricting (to set a precedent for next session, when legislative and Congressional reapportionment will be considered.) By today, the redistricting piece had disappeared, but voter ID remained.
After hours of contentious debate, the suspension of the two-thirds rule for consideration of a voter ID bill passed 18-13, almost completely along partisan lines. (One Republican, John Carona of Dallas, joined all 12 Democrats in voting no.) While the rule change was spearheaded by Senator Tommy Williams of the Woodlands, it was widely seen as a victory for Houston Senator Dan Patrick, who called it an important first step toward his goal of abolishing the two-thirds rule all together.
With all the critical challenges facing the state -- a tough budget, public schools, utility rates, college tuition, insurance reform, children's health insurance, to name a few -- a voter ID bill is what Senate Republicans think should be their highest priority. What can one say, except sadly, we are not surprised.
We especially appreciated the "leadership" displayed Lt. Governor Dewhurst, who pushed voter ID last session, even going so far as trying to take advantage of ill members to subvert the rules. And while his fingerprints were all over today's rule change, he ran for political cover behind his Senate President gavel, claiming only that he was trying to facilitate a discussion among members.
Ah, nothing like a politician who pines for higher office trying to have his cake and eat it too. By engineering this rule change mess, Dewhurst throws a bone to his rabid right-wing base, which could prove helpful in a primary race for say... United States Senator? At the same time, the Lite Guv maintains plausible deniability, perhaps avoiding hard feelings that could linger in a general election campaign. Clever, clever.
Real leadership is about taking on real problems, Governor Dewhurst. And on that score, you and your Senate GOP colleagues have failed the people of Texas once again.
Posted by houtopia at 07:51 PM | Comments (0)
January 13, 2009
Away We Go With The 81st
Today began the 81st session of the Texas Legislature, and in a reversal of recent history, the House got started amid calm and near unanimity, while the normally more collegial Senate immediately divided along partisan lines.
Republican Joe Straus of San Antonio was elected Speaker of the House by acclamation - remarkable considering the drama surrounding the demise of former Speaker Tom Craddick just days ago. Straus pledged to bring the House's 150 members together and foster a new spirit of cooperation. A welcome change, to say the least, especially considering there is nearly equal representation by the two parties in the body.
By contrast, the Senate quickly frayed over the "two-thirds rule" for considering legislation. Designed to protect the minority party, this long-standing agreement requires two-thirds of the Senate's approval to consider bills. Readers will recall that Lt. Governor David Dewhurst (who presides over the Senate) tried to take advantage of two Democratic senators' ill health last session and skirt the rule to pass a voter ID bill. He was thwarted when the two Democrats dramatically returned to the Senate floor.
Well, Dewhurst is at it again. He wants the two-thirds rule exempted for consideration of, once again, a voter ID bill, and for redistricting, an extraordinarily divisive process that ripped the Legislature apart last time it came up. Not surprisingly, Senate Democrats are less than enthused with this beginning to the session.
This development is especially interesting in light of the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to hear a challenge to the Voting Rights Act. The case, which originated in Austin, seeks to undo the Justice Department's power of "preclearance".
The preclearance provision -- Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act -- empowers the Justice Department to review and approve (or disapprove) in advance of any changes to voting procedures (including apportionment of voting districts, otherwise known as redistricting) in states, mostly in the South, with a history of racial discrimination. Should the court decide to overturn the preclearance provision, the consequences are potentially profound in a state like Texas.
If, in 2011 after the next Census, Republicans still at least mostly control state government (which we have to assume is likely at this point), they will, de facto, control the redistricting process for state legislative and Congressional districts in Texas. The one safeguard against adoption of another draconian Republican plan, like the one Tom DeLay orchestrated several years ago, would be an Obama Justice Department's power of preclearance. Absent the preclearance provision, Texas could be subjected to a royal GOP gerrymander screw-job that we'd be stuck with for another decade. Perish the thought.
Abolishing the two-thirds rule for voter ID and redistricting; abolishing the Justice Department's preclearance power. It is crystal clear that Republicans understand that maintaining partisan dominance in Texas (the GOP's largest electoral vote state) is crucial to their future political viability. Clearly, they also realize the state is changing underneath them and are working feverishly to keep the Texas deck stacked in their favor.
Pay attention, folks. The future of our state depends on it.
Posted by houtopia at 11:06 PM | Comments (2)
January 04, 2009
A Good Day For Texas
Word via the Chronicle this evening is that Texas House Speaker Tom Craddick will not seek reelection to the top House post, and that San Antonio GOP representative Joe Straus has the votes to become the new Speaker.
Straus, a fiscally conservative, socially moderate Republican, has pledged a new day in the House, eschewing partisanship (which kinda makes sense in a body evenly divided between the two parties), and said that his goal is to restore "civility, fairness and transparency to the House of Representatives and its public policy-making process."
Hallelujah.
To outgoing Speaker Craddick, the message is clear -- you reap what you sow. Craddick ruled the House with an iron fist, forcing an intensely partisan, special-interest driven agenda down Texans' throats. At the end of the last legislative session, he lost control of the body, and only survived with draconian parlimentary measures. Tom Craddick did this to himself.
Texas is a better place now that Craddick's choke-hold on the House has been broken. Joe Straus seems like a sensible pragmatist -- exactly what this state needs.
So to our friends on the religious right: we're so sorry for you that you now have one less ally in distracting Texans from the real public policy challenges facing our state -- public education, healthcare, utility rates, college tuition, etc. Good luck peddling your 1950's Beaver Cleaver version of America. The rest of us are trying to live in the real world.
Posted by houtopia at 10:36 PM | Comments (0)