« Less Than Two Days To Fail Texas | Main | A Beautiful Day »
January 15, 2009
Worried About 2010
Much of the political oxygen in Texas was sucked up today by the two potential adversaries in the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary -- incumbent Governor Rick Perry and U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison. After flirting with challenging Perry twice before, this time Hutchison so far is demonstrating she is more serious about actually making the race.
Campaign finance reports for state candidates and officeholders were due today, and Senator Hutchison went all in, transferring nearly $8 million from her Senate campaign to her gubernatorial effort. Perry, no slouch, raised nearly $5 million of his own in the second half of 2008 and begins the year with $6.6 million in the bank. These are impressive numbers from both, and they signal a battle royale for the 2010 GOP nomination. (Paul Burka has an insightful new article on the race in the new issue of Texas Monthly.)
The question is, what Democrat will challenge the Republican nominee? Two potentially strong contenders, Houston Mayor Bill White and former State Comptroller John Sharp, have calculated that trying for Hutchison's Senate seat, when she steps down, is a better bet. (Considering she is the state' s most popular politician and probably has at least an even shot of winning the GOP primary, it's not an unreasonable calculation.)
Trouble with that is, no one knows if or when before the November 2010 general election Hutchison will actually quit the Senate. Legally, she isn't required to do so to run for governor, and as a story today at politico.com notes, Hutchison is under increasing pressure to stay in her Senate seat as long as possible to prevent any chance of Democrats gaining a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority there.
Even if Hutchison were to resign her seat early, there is virtually no chance she would time her departure so that the contest to elect her successor would happen in the November 2010 general election. So, the great likelihood, for now at least, is that neither Bill White nor John Sharp will be atop the ticket for Texas Democrats in 2010. Again we ask, who will?
The question matters greatly, even though Republicans maintain an advantage in statewide elections. First of all, it is far from certain that Hutchison will actually run against Perry or beat him if she does. She hasn't had a real race since winning her Senate seat 15 years ago, and it is not clear how she would handle a tough primary campaign. And given that Perry limped to reelection in 2006 with just 39% of the vote, a strong Democratic candidate would have a real chance to beat him in 2010 if he is the GOP nominee.
Second, even if retaking the governor's mansion proves too tall an order for Democrats in two years, running a strong campaign for the office is vitally important to the state's political future. The reason? Redistricting.
A major piece of the 2011 session of the Texas Legislature will be state legislative and Congressional reapportionment (another word for redistricting.) After the 2010 Census, new district lines for the State House & Senate, as well as U.S. Congress (where Texas stands to gain 3 or 4 new seats by most estimates) will be drawn and approved by the Legislature.
Each of these three respective redistricting plans -- State House, State Senate & U.S. Congress -- must be approved by both houses of the Texas Legislature and signed by the governor. With a Democratic governor, egregious GOP gerrymanders could be vetoed. A perhaps more attainable goal for Democrats -- retaking the Texas House -- could also prevent extreme partisan Republican redistricting plans from being enacted. A net gain of just two State House seats in 2010 would flip the current GOP 76-74 margin to Democrats, and likely block any extreme Republican redistricting plan.
Here's why having a real Democratic campaign for governor matters. Obviously, winning the race would have huge implications for state government in Texas. Even running a strong race and falling short, however, could have a major impact, particularly concerning State House races.
Democrats have closed a 26-seat Republican advantage in the Texas House to two seats in just a few years, and virtually all those gains have come in the state's major urban areas. Critical to those successes has been support from base Democratic voters, especially African Americans and Latinos. Democrats won some legislative seats in DFW and Houston in 2008 based on strong base Democratic voting. Absent a strong top of the ticket race for governor in 2010, however, Democratic turnout in urban areas will likely be lackluster and could have serious consequences in the State House.
The governor's race in Texas drives the character and intensity of the election in non-presidential years, and without a competitive gubernatorial contest that drives base Democratic voter turnout in 2010, not only will Democrats find it difficult to gain new legislative seats, they may well lose some of those gained in 2008.
As of now, no Democratic candidate for Texas Governor has emerged, much less a serious contender. And that is why we are officially worried about 2010.
Posted by houtopia at January 15, 2009 10:43 PM