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February 24, 2009
The Not State Of The Union Speech
Quick reaction -- Obama did quite well. He was clear, confident; optimistic without being pollyanish; honest without being overly grim. A very successful first outing before Congress.
Jindal? Bad. Tone deaf message; huge creepiness factor.
Posted by houtopia at 10:50 PM | Comments (0)
February 17, 2009
The No-Stats All-Star
We are just home from the Rockets game -- a satisfying blowout over the New Jersey Nets. It was an especially good night for the Rockets' Shane Battier, who scored a season-high 19 points, including five 3-pointers. Perhaps he was basking in the glow of this flattering NY Times Magazine piece from last Sunday.
Posted by houtopia at 11:20 PM | Comments (0)
February 15, 2009
Eye On The 18th
There has been considerable buzz among Houston political insiders in recent days about whether or not we will soon have a special election here to fill an open Congressional seat. Texas' 18th Congressional district has been represented since 1995 by Democrat Sheila Jackson Lee, but rumors persist that she will soon vacate the seat to take a position in the U.S. State Department.
Readers will recall that Jackson Lee was an ardent supporter of Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential campaign, despite the fact that her constituents overwhelmingly backed Barack Obama. There is wide speculation that Secretary of State Clinton may return the favor and offer the Congresswoman an undersecretary position.
Jackson Lee issued a weak denial of the rumors a few days ago, but the chatter continues. We have no information either way, but her potential departure is interesting to contemplate as a political matter.
First off, count us among those who believe that if Jackson Lee leaves her seat, it will be on her own terms. There has been some talk of a revenge 2010 Democratic primary run against her as payback for supporting Clinton over Obama. We say, good luck with that.
To begin with, very few average district voters likely have any perception of her presidential primary preference, so a challenger would have to spend a lot of money informing them of it. Secondly, the issue, even if widely known, is likely to lose steam with Obama supporters over two years, especially since their guy won. Finally, while Jackson Lee may have a controversial public profile among the broad Houston-area public, she remains extremely popular among Democratic primary voters in the 18th District. Given that it is a very safe Democratic district (Jackson Lee was reelected with 77% of the vote against two opponents in November), if you can't beat her in a March primary you ain't gonna beat her. Again, if she leaves Congress, it will almost certainly be of her own accord.
So what happens if the Congresswoman does resign? Some of it would depend on timing, but were she to leave within the next six weeks or so, there would likely be a May special election to fill the vacancy. Open shots at Congressional seats don't come around very often, so a bunch of candidates would likely join the fray. Current officeholders would not have to resign to run in a special election, so a number of them might be tempted to enter the race.
A long list of potential candidates has already surfaced, including members of the Texas Legislature, Houston City Council (where Jackson Lee came from), local school boards and the business community. We could easily see 12 to 15 candidates in such a contest. Should he opt to make the race, however, our wager would be on one -- State Representative and former Houston mayoral candidate Sylvester Turner.
A low turnout May special election with a dozen or more candidates would virtually guarantee a runoff. Given that virtually all of Turner's House district is contained in the 18th Congressional district, that he retains significant name recognition from two credible mayoral campaigns, and that a short campaign window will make it hard for candidates to raise enough money to do substantial voter communication, Turner would have enormous advantages over the field and would be a near lock to make the runoff. His committed base of supporters (Turner is beloved in his House district) would likely be decisive in an even lower turnout runoff election.
Should there be an opening, we think the seat is probably Turner's if he wants it. The question is, does the opening materialize, and if so does Sly make the race? Stay tuned.
Posted by houtopia at 10:15 PM | Comments (0)
February 10, 2009
No Words
Terri Langford has written a new story for the Houston Chronicle that is simply amazing (and not in a good way.) The kind of mistreatment of our most vulnerable citizens described in this story reads more like a Dickens novel than the sad truth. There simply are no words.
Posted by houtopia at 10:33 PM | Comments (0)