Yes, President Obama's poll numbers have come down over the last few months, but remember nearly half the country didn't vote for him in the first place, and the GOP's numbers are now so low it's hard to imagine they held the White House and Congress as recently as three years ago.

But polls, schmolls, right? Well, Joshua Grossman, at the excellent 538, offers more empirical evidence against the Chicken Little crowd -- actual election results. That's right folks, in two special election contests held Tuesday -- one in California and one in Iowa -- Democratic candidates performed almost exactly as one would expect, winning in Iowa, and dominating the jungle primary first round in California.

Is everything rosy for Democrats? Of course not. Health care reform is a real fight, as opponents have pretty effectively muddied the waters of public opinion, and while the national economy is beginning to show signs of life, average Americans aren't yet experiencing improvement.

Last time we checked, however, the midterm elections were scheduled for November 2010, not 2009. The political climate for Democrats may well be treacherous a year from now, but it may also be improved from today's situation. We simply do not yet know. A year is an eternity in politics -- just ask Mark Sanford.

So, stop cowering in the corner; stop obsessing over video of gun-toting "birthers". Get up, engage, and fight for progress.

South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford's shortcomings are now a matter of public record. (Think anyone is happier than he about the deaths of Jacko and Farrah? They that push-esh thee off the front page...)

We understand Gov. Sanford recently announced he would repay the taxpayer money spent on trips to visit his Argentinian paramour. What an upstanding guy. Does anyone think for a moment that had he not been caught, the money would have been repayed? Sorry Guv, that doesn't count.

Time for Sanford to exit the political stage.

So, yesterday the ax began to fall. By some reports 90 newsroom employees and contractors were eliminated, a deep and grievous wound to the paper's nerve center. Today, apparently, the advertising section was hit as well. The total casualty count is as yet unclear, but it is undoubtedly massive. Richard Connelly at the Houston Press has done yeoman work reporting on the situation on his Hair Balls blog, and has compiled and updated a list of the fallen.

First of all, it is tragic to see so many dedicated professionals lose their jobs, particularly in the inhospitable economic situation we currently face. We are very sorry and wish them the very best for the future.

But after witnessing such a journalistic slaughter at a newspaper that had already steadily been sacrificing quality people and content to save money, we are left to ask, who is left to report the news in the nation's 4th largest city? Of course, this question can, and is rightly being asked about the news business as a whole. Are pictures of people's dogs and video from the weekend bar scene really what we can come to expect from our supposed news sources? Will opinion blogs like this one supplant real reporting?

Such a future is very grim to contemplate, but a very real possibility. Or, will a new but sound (ethically, intellectually and financially) journalistic model emerge? We certainly hope so.

The Dallas Fed report suggests that the economic downturn in Texas lagged the nation as a whole by about six months, and that 2009 is likely to be a rough year in the state. Employment, exports, new home construction, and other indicators are all down. Jobs in Texas are expected to decline by about 3% in 2009 -- partially due to layoffs, but also because of a growing labor market. That means while we do have current members of the workforce losing their jobs, we also have other folks moving here from elsewhere, as well as young Texans reaching working age.

If there is any silver lining for the Houston area, it is that our city is not expected to be hit quite as hard as Austin or Dallas, unless energy prices really tank. Small consolation to the thousands of people here who are struggling, but let's hope it's true.

So, newsflash: it's gonna be a tough year.

Congressional Republicans have opposed President Obama's agenda to date, virtually in lock step, and watched their polling numbers head even further south as the country cries out for action from its government. And while Rush Limbaugh rallies the party faithful, to stick to dogma and with leadership that has demonstrably failed, to the rest of America the vaunted GOP "base" seems to be living in an alternate universe.

Here in Texas, which is still Republican-run but not quite as GOP-friendly as it once was, and which is assuredly feeling the economic pain gripping the entire country, our Governor appears to be in a universe, or perhaps a vacuum, all his own.

Yes, the policy genius who brought you zero-dollar budgets submitted to the Legislature, the HPV vaccine and the Trans Texas Corridor today decided, in his infinite wisdom, to reject federal stimulus funds to aid the unemployed. Never mind that Texans are hurting and pay federal taxes like everyone else, and that those funds will simply go to another state, Rick Perry is a true believer. He is also headed for a tough Republican primary for reelection, so throwing red meat to that aforementioned base is priority one.

Short-term, such a strategy may be viable in Texas, but our state has a large and growing underclass, not to mention a whole lot of folks in the middle who are being squeezed economically, so playing only to the Republican faithful is not likely a recipe for continuing to dominate politics statewide.

By contrast, the new Harris County District Attorney, a Republican who won office by less than 5,000 votes out of over 1.1 million cast, may have a strategy for success worthy of emulation by fellow Republicans. It's called doing one's job.

Pat Lykos, who took over for the previous Republican incumbent Chuck Rosenthal, a lying, philandering, drug-addled failure, seems to be making the restoration of public confidence in the DA's office her number one priority. Lykos just announced that DNA testing of evidence will become mandatory in every case where it is available and relevant. In addition to being the right thing to do, her action is a politically smart move in a county that has had several high-profile cases of wrongful convictions in recent years.

Republicans in Austin and Washington DC could learn a thing or two from our DA.

Jindal? Bad. Tone deaf message; huge creepiness factor.

Readers will recall that Jackson Lee was an ardent supporter of Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential campaign, despite the fact that her constituents overwhelmingly backed Barack Obama. There is wide speculation that Secretary of State Clinton may return the favor and offer the Congresswoman an undersecretary position.

Jackson Lee issued a weak denial of the rumors a few days ago, but the chatter continues. We have no information either way, but her potential departure is interesting to contemplate as a political matter.

First off, count us among those who believe that if Jackson Lee leaves her seat, it will be on her own terms. There has been some talk of a revenge 2010 Democratic primary run against her as payback for supporting Clinton over Obama. We say, good luck with that.

To begin with, very few average district voters likely have any perception of her presidential primary preference, so a challenger would have to spend a lot of money informing them of it. Secondly, the issue, even if widely known, is likely to lose steam with Obama supporters over two years, especially since their guy won. Finally, while Jackson Lee may have a controversial public profile among the broad Houston-area public, she remains extremely popular among Democratic primary voters in the 18th District. Given that it is a very safe Democratic district (Jackson Lee was reelected with 77% of the vote against two opponents in November), if you can't beat her in a March primary you ain't gonna beat her. Again, if she leaves Congress, it will almost certainly be of her own accord.

So what happens if the Congresswoman does resign? Some of it would depend on timing, but were she to leave within the next six weeks or so, there would likely be a May special election to fill the vacancy. Open shots at Congressional seats don't come around very often, so a bunch of candidates would likely join the fray. Current officeholders would not have to resign to run in a special election, so a number of them might be tempted to enter the race.

A long list of potential candidates has already surfaced, including members of the Texas Legislature, Houston City Council (where Jackson Lee came from), local school boards and the business community. We could easily see 12 to 15 candidates in such a contest. Should he opt to make the race, however, our wager would be on one -- State Representative and former Houston mayoral candidate Sylvester Turner.

A low turnout May special election with a dozen or more candidates would virtually guarantee a runoff. Given that virtually all of Turner's House district is contained in the 18th Congressional district, that he retains significant name recognition from two credible mayoral campaigns, and that a short campaign window will make it hard for candidates to raise enough money to do substantial voter communication, Turner would have enormous advantages over the field and would be a near lock to make the runoff. His committed base of supporters (Turner is beloved in his House district) would likely be decisive in an even lower turnout runoff election.

Should there be an opening, we think the seat is probably Turner's if he wants it. The question is, does the opening materialize, and if so does Sly make the race? Stay tuned.

An equally beautiful, and frankly amazing sight, is the sea of Americans who have filled their National Mall in Washington to celebrate the inauguration of Barack Obama as the 44th President of the United States. Obama's swearing in today is an enormous moment in the history of this country. It offers the nation the chance to perhaps exorcise some demons from its troubled past concerning race.

Beyond today's huge symbolism, Obama's assuming the reigns of government, bolstered by large majorities in Congress, likely means substantial changes in policy following the George W. Bush presidency. Hallelujah.

President Obama takes office at a difficult time for the country. The tasks before him are enormous. He will make mistakes. He is a person, however, of enormous talent and capability who has surrounded himself with the best.

We send warm congratulations to Washington, and hope for success in his administration.

Welcome, Mr. President. Best wishes and God's speed.

Campaign finance reports for state candidates and officeholders were due today, and Senator Hutchison went all in, transferring nearly $8 million from her Senate campaign to her gubernatorial effort. Perry, no slouch, raised nearly $5 million of his own in the second half of 2008 and begins the year with $6.6 million in the bank. These are impressive numbers from both, and they signal a battle royale for the 2010 GOP nomination. (Paul Burka has an insightful new article on the race in the new issue of Texas Monthly.)

The question is, what Democrat will challenge the Republican nominee? Two potentially strong contenders, Houston Mayor Bill White and former State Comptroller John Sharp, have calculated that trying for Hutchison's Senate seat, when she steps down, is a better bet. (Considering she is the state' s most popular politician and probably has at least an even shot of winning the GOP primary, it's not an unreasonable calculation.)

Trouble with that is, no one knows if or when before the November 2010 general election Hutchison will actually quit the Senate. Legally, she isn't required to do so to run for governor, and as a story today at politico.com notes, Hutchison is under increasing pressure to stay in her Senate seat as long as possible to prevent any chance of Democrats gaining a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority there.

Even if Hutchison were to resign her seat early, there is virtually no chance she would time her departure so that the contest to elect her successor would happen in the November 2010 general election. So, the great likelihood, for now at least, is that neither Bill White nor John Sharp will be atop the ticket for Texas Democrats in 2010. Again we ask, who will?

The question matters greatly, even though Republicans maintain an advantage in statewide elections. First of all, it is far from certain that Hutchison will actually run against Perry or beat him if she does. She hasn't had a real race since winning her Senate seat 15 years ago, and it is not clear how she would handle a tough primary campaign. And given that Perry limped to reelection in 2006 with just 39% of the vote, a strong Democratic candidate would have a real chance to beat him in 2010 if he is the GOP nominee.

Second, even if retaking the governor's mansion proves too tall an order for Democrats in two years, running a strong campaign for the office is vitally important to the state's political future. The reason? Redistricting.

A major piece of the 2011 session of the Texas Legislature will be state legislative and Congressional reapportionment (another word for redistricting.) After the 2010 Census, new district lines for the State House & Senate, as well as U.S. Congress (where Texas stands to gain 3 or 4 new seats by most estimates) will be drawn and approved by the Legislature.

Each of these three respective redistricting plans -- State House, State Senate & U.S. Congress -- must be approved by both houses of the Texas Legislature and signed by the governor. With a Democratic governor, egregious GOP gerrymanders could be vetoed. A perhaps more attainable goal for Democrats -- retaking the Texas House -- could also prevent extreme partisan Republican redistricting plans from being enacted. A net gain of just two State House seats in 2010 would flip the current GOP 76-74 margin to Democrats, and likely block any extreme Republican redistricting plan.

Here's why having a real Democratic campaign for governor matters. Obviously, winning the race would have huge implications for state government in Texas. Even running a strong race and falling short, however, could have a major impact, particularly concerning State House races.

Democrats have closed a 26-seat Republican advantage in the Texas House to two seats in just a few years, and virtually all those gains have come in the state's major urban areas. Critical to those successes has been support from base Democratic voters, especially African Americans and Latinos. Democrats won some legislative seats in DFW and Houston in 2008 based on strong base Democratic voting. Absent a strong top of the ticket race for governor in 2010, however, Democratic turnout in urban areas will likely be lackluster and could have serious consequences in the State House.

The governor's race in Texas drives the character and intensity of the election in non-presidential years, and without a competitive gubernatorial contest that drives base Democratic voter turnout in 2010, not only will Democrats find it difficult to gain new legislative seats, they may well lose some of those gained in 2008.

As of now, no Democratic candidate for Texas Governor has emerged, much less a serious contender. And that is why we are officially worried about 2010.